Unemployment in India to increase marginally in 2017-18: UN report

India’s unemployment index in 2017 will witness a marginal increase in 2017 according to a United Nations labour report. The report noted that workers in Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have more than a 70 per cent chance of falling into vulnerable employment.

Vulnerable unemployment is the sort of employment that doesn’t grant workers any social security scheme (which is a common feature when it comes to wage and salaried workers), the report titled “2017 World Employment and Social Outlook” noted. Conducted by UN’s International Labour Organisation (ILO), the report found that economic Growth trends are lagging in a race against employment needs in 2017.

With the Global GDP hitting a six-year low, at 3.1 per cent, in 2016, the global economic growth is expected to pick up in 2017. However, over the past few years forecasts of growth have been revised continuously for 2017 due to uncertainty, leaving behind questions of its ability to generate employment, especially for those newly entering the labour market.

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The report emphasizes that average wage work around the world up going from 2.5 per cent in 2012 to 1.7 per cent in 2015. Ever since 2006, India has increased about 60 per cent in average wage. However, there has been a decline in the G20 group going from 6.6 per cent in 2012 to 2.5 per cent in 2016.

The report said that unemployment in India has been projected to increase from 17.7 million last year to 17.8 million in 2017 and 18 million next year. The unemployment rate will remain at 3.4 per cent in 2017-18.

Though unemployment levels in India seem to remain below 4 per cent of the entire population, taking into consideration the size if the Indian population brings about a large number. In the global context, India is one of the regions with the most number of people under vulnerable employment. The country falls on the average global index when it comes to working poverty (those living on less than 3.10 US dollars per day) with about 35 to 50 per cent of the population falling within this category.

The report notes that global unemployment levels are expected to remain high, while the global labour force is growing at a faster rate. It is expected that the labour force will outstrip job creation in 2018, leading to the unemployment of over 2.7 million people around the world.